The word supposed means "reckon," "added up," "put the pieces together." He reasoned from the evidence he heard from God, and he thought that the people would reason too. It must have been general knowledge that Moses was the deliverer, but they did not have faith in it. Moses knew that God had a people, Israel, though they were in bondage. He had heard that Israel was to be delivered. He had even heard things about the Messiah, according to Hebrews 11. We do not know all that God communicated to Moses, but God set before his mind what His will and purpose was for him.
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